Understanding what influences forex prices

This article will explain some of the differences between Technical Analysis and Fundamentals and explain a bit about each type of trading. Excerpts are taken from the best-selling book ‘Market Wizards’ where Jack Schwager interviews Ed Seykota and Bruce Kovner.

Ed is a trend trader (uses technical analysis) and also relies on hunches from 20 years of experience. He definitely emphasizes his reliance on technical analysis. While reading this, I liken, the ‘hunches’ to knowing the effect fundamentals can have on a market although I could be mistaken, they could be purely from reading lots of charts so well. Here are is exact words “Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them ‘funny-mentals.’ However, if you catch on early, before others believe, then you might have valuable ‘surprise-a-mentals.’”

Ed says his priorities when trading are the long term trend, the current charts and picking a good spot to buy or sell, in that order.

Bruce says technical is awesome and very useful but by no means disregards fundamentals.

It’s important to note that technical analysis is a critical method of understanding the history of market movements and hence useful to identify trends. It doesn’t actually tell us where the currency is going but analyses historical data. We then need to use our own intelligence to see what the activity of trading says about future trades.

Technical Analysis can be compared to taking a patient’s temperature. To ignore it is ignorance and it can tell you whether a market is active, or cold and dormant.

It also picks up unusual behaviour. Anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual. He also says “Studying the charts is absolutely crucial and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes.”

It’s the fundamentals that will help to indicate whether a trading value will increase or decrease.

Everything that makes a country tick, in Forex terms. Consumer spending, government spending, employment cost index, government policy, political concerns and even an individual event can influence the market heavily.

In summary, the fundamentals will indicate the direction of a price but not exact prices. The chart analysis or technical analysis is better for that, so together you can really increase your chances of coming away with some pips.

The reason technical analysis is so emphasized is that many traders use charts to trade and at any given time, will be drawing the same lines of resistance and same lines of support. So if you can read the charts well, you have an awesome chance of predicting market movements. The best way to learn about the effect of fundamentals is to learn one piece of economic data at a time. This will help you make better-educated trades.

An introduction to currency correlation

Global currencies don’t ride the trends in isolation. The apparent technical movement between two currencies in a pair may cause an effect in the behaviour of each separate currency. A third currency will also have some bearing on the rise or fall of a seemingly unrelated pair, in the view of an intermediate or beginning trader. Even seasoned trend cowboys may miss the odd significant event that results in a trade loss.

Technical analysis often comprises the bulk of the independent speculator’s trade decisions, but some attention to fundamental news must be included for a complete overview of what is happening in the market at that particular moment. Neither weather, beetles, drought, hostile takeovers nor indicted CEO’s have much real bearing on currency values, but the timing of the release of economic reports should determine if a trade is viable or not.

A rising tide raises all ships, but the trading ocean is made of waves, with deep troughs and high crests. A rising ship may have a tether to another that is dropping down the other side of the swell. As one currency in a trade pair rises, it may pull another currency up with it, or just the opposite. A drop in the Euro may allow an increase in the value of the GBP, which will certainly have an influence on the USD/GBP spread.

So when considering the merits of a good trade, also take into account the activity of each currency’s most closely related cousin. When trading the Canadian dollar, you must certainly consider the relative movement, or lack thereof, in the US dollar. Canada’s largest trading partner is the US, so fluctuations in the US economy may or may not have an effect on the Loonie, depending on the gravity of the news.

The UK maintained their own currency, the British Pound, but the economic business of Europe can still influence the directional trend of the Pound Sterling. The French Franc will also be swayed by the enterprise of the communal Euro. As you analyze your charts, take care to make a quick examination of any volatile activity in any similar currency.

The average day trader and individual speculator cannot possibly keep up with all the economic news released each day and still have time to trade and eat lunch, and old news has already shown itself in the charts. One must pay attention to important published economic developments, and generally avoid trading on report days. But the trend will indicate market sentiment, and great profits can be made by keeping the major focus on technical analysis.

International bankers and currency houses have developed complex mathematical models to track currency correlation, but these are beyond the scope of this article. In summary, just check how related currencies are trending, when preparing a trade. Another quick analytical tool for the traders’ arsenal is always a good thing. May your winners run long.

Good Trading, Kelly Archibald.